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TSM: CoWoS Capacity as the AI Enabler

Feb 1, 2026|Quant Research|Industry Deep Dive
TSMSemiconductorsManufacturingAI

TSMC's advanced packaging (CoWoS) is the critical bottleneck for AI chip production. We analyze capacity expansion plans and revenue implications.

Overview

TSMC's Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) advanced packaging technology is essential for producing large AI accelerators that integrate HBM.

Capacity Analysis

  • 2025 CoWoS capacity: ~35K wafers/month
  • 2026E capacity: ~60K wafers/month (70%+ YoY growth)
  • Primary customers: NVIDIA (50%+), AMD, Broadcom, Google

Revenue Impact

Advanced packaging contributes an estimated 8-10% of TSMC's total revenue, with margins improving as utilization reaches 95%+.

Investment Implications

CoWoS capacity expansion supports our constructive view on TSM, with the stock trading at 18x forward earnings versus a 5-year average of 20x.