NVDA
θtheta.md

The market is a dependency graph.We mapped it.

5,000+ supply chain signals. 11 sectors. Every edge traced from SEC filings.

Signals as of Mar 23, 2026
[NVDA]GTC 2026: $1T purchase orders projected through 2027 across Blackwell + Vera ...·[AMD]MI450 confirmed on TSMC N2 — first 2nm GPU, ahead of NVIDIA Rubin (N3). Meta ...·[MU]Q2 FY2026 revenue $23.9B (+196% YoY), GM 75%, HBM4 36GB volume shipments begu...·[AVGO]Q1 FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue $8.4B (+106% YoY). OpenAI confirmed as 6th...·[TSM]N2 yields at 65-75% (ahead of internal projections). Capex raised to $56B for...·[VRT]S&P 500 inclusion effective today. Q4 organic orders +252% YoY, $15B backlog ...·[GEV]Raised revenue and cash flow outlook through 2028. 2026 revenue $44.6B (+17.2...·[ANET]CEO raised 2026 revenue target to $11B (from $9B). AI networking revenue $3.2...·[APLD]Priced $2.15B senior secured notes (6.75%, 2031) for Polaris Forge 2. New US ...·[CRWV]850 MW across 43 data centers, targeting 1.7 GW by end of 2026. $66.8B backlo...·[SNDK]March 20 lock-up expiration on 2M+ shares triggered 8% selloff, currently reb...·[LRCX]Semiconductor equipment sector rallied broadly. HBM4 stacking (8-Hi to 16-Hi)...·[AMAT]Equipment sector up broadly. But AMAT fined $252M for illegally exporting ion...·[MRVL]Custom ASIC + networking chips benefiting from same hyperscaler expansion nar...·[AMKR]Advanced packaging demand overflowing from TSM internal capacity to OSATs. GT...·[INTC]SemiAnalysis reports AI RL training CPU shortage. Intel Xeon inventory unexpe...·[ASE]OSAT sector tracking broader semiconductor rally. No independent catalyst. LE...·[NVDA]GTC 2026: $1T purchase orders projected through 2027 across Blackwell + Vera ...·[AMD]MI450 confirmed on TSMC N2 — first 2nm GPU, ahead of NVIDIA Rubin (N3). Meta ...·[MU]Q2 FY2026 revenue $23.9B (+196% YoY), GM 75%, HBM4 36GB volume shipments begu...·[AVGO]Q1 FY2026 AI semiconductor revenue $8.4B (+106% YoY). OpenAI confirmed as 6th...·[TSM]N2 yields at 65-75% (ahead of internal projections). Capex raised to $56B for...·[VRT]S&P 500 inclusion effective today. Q4 organic orders +252% YoY, $15B backlog ...·[GEV]Raised revenue and cash flow outlook through 2028. 2026 revenue $44.6B (+17.2...·[ANET]CEO raised 2026 revenue target to $11B (from $9B). AI networking revenue $3.2...·[APLD]Priced $2.15B senior secured notes (6.75%, 2031) for Polaris Forge 2. New US ...·[CRWV]850 MW across 43 data centers, targeting 1.7 GW by end of 2026. $66.8B backlo...·[SNDK]March 20 lock-up expiration on 2M+ shares triggered 8% selloff, currently reb...·[LRCX]Semiconductor equipment sector rallied broadly. HBM4 stacking (8-Hi to 16-Hi)...·[AMAT]Equipment sector up broadly. But AMAT fined $252M for illegally exporting ion...·[MRVL]Custom ASIC + networking chips benefiting from same hyperscaler expansion nar...·[AMKR]Advanced packaging demand overflowing from TSM internal capacity to OSATs. GT...·[INTC]SemiAnalysis reports AI RL training CPU shortage. Intel Xeon inventory unexpe...·[ASE]OSAT sector tracking broader semiconductor rally. No independent catalyst. LE...·
5,000+
Dependency signals
100,000+
Daily data points
S&P 500
Full universe
28Q
Backtested alpha

We map the hidden wiring

The S&P 500 isn’t 500 independent companies. It’s a living dependency graph where one node’s output is another’s input. We reverse-engineered every 10-K filing to extract the wiring diagram that Bloomberg doesn’t show you.

Buy-side frameworkS&P 500 full coverage
Dependency signals5,000+
GICS sectors mapped11

Every number traces to a filing

We don’t trust aggregators. Every financial data point is reconciled against SEC EDGAR XBRL source filings. If the source doesn’t support a number, the field stays null — we’d rather show you nothing than show you a guess.

Validation methodEDGAR XBRL
VerificationIndependent verification
Null over guessworkAlways

Signals propagate with measurable delay

When DRAM spot prices shift, memory stocks don’t react immediately. Cross-correlation on 34 months of TrendForce monthly data shows commodity signals lead equity prices by approximately one month (r = 0.53) — a window the market consistently fails to close.

That delay is investable

After DRAM spot price increases, MU averages +20.5% over 40 trading days. After decreases, just +1.0%. The 19.5-point spread is one example from our systematic supply chain signal library.

Data window34 months
Spot UP monthsn = 24
40d spread+19.5%
Coming Soon

Next: stress-testing the unthinkable

What if TSMC goes dark? We are building Monte Carlo simulation on the full dependency graph — 10,000 paths, node-by-node propagation delay, portfolio-level VaR decomposed by supply chain routes.

Where we are heading

Calibration Curves

Q2 2026

Public Brier-scored prediction accuracy — transparency as moat.

Contagion Simulator

Q2 2026

BFS propagation engine on the full graph. Model ‘What if TSMC delays N2 by 6 months?’

Geopolitical Overlay

Q3 2026

Sanctions, export controls, and entity lists mapped onto supply chain edges.

theta.md

For serious investors who think in systems.