About
Institutional-grade research infrastructure for the AI semiconductor supply chain
Our Mission
theta.md is a buy-side research platform purpose-built for professional investors navigating the AI infrastructure cycle. We map the hidden wiring of the semiconductor supply chain — from equipment vendors to hyperscaler end-demand — and translate that topology into actionable investment intelligence.
Every data point is sourced from SEC filings and official company disclosures. Every thesis is stress-tested through independent red team analysis and cross-verification. We do not estimate, interpolate, or aggregate from third-party sources. If the source doesn’t support it, the field stays null.
Our Approach
Traditional equity research treats the market as a flat list of tickers. We start from the graph — a directed network of 497 companies and 500+ supply chain dependencies, each edge verified against 10-K disclosures. This structure reveals propagation patterns invisible to consensus: how a TSMC yield issue cascades to equipment spend, how DRAM spot pricing signals hyperscaler capex intent, how a single chokepoint concentrates risk across seemingly diversified portfolios.
Capabilities
Supply Chain Intelligence
S&P 500 full-coverage dependency graph with 11 sector production chains. Revenue-weighted edges, chokepoint scoring, and cross-sector propagation modeling.
Scenario-Tree Valuation
Probability-weighted bull/base/bear frameworks with explicit EPS assumptions, valuation multiples, and trigger conditions — each traceable to specific 10-K line items.
EDGAR-First Data Pipeline
Automated XBRL reconciliation for every financial data point. All figures cross-validated against SEC source filings. Zero tolerance for estimated or hallucinated data.
Red Team Analysis
Every investment thesis undergoes independent red team analysis. Conviction levels — high, moderate, or low — with granular section-level annotations.
Signal Monitoring & Event Intelligence
26-ticker signal matrix tracking 5,000+ daily data points. Pre-event prediction cards with Brier scoring, post-event attribution, and calibration tracking.
Bilingual Research Output
Full English and Chinese research coverage. Investment theses, daily briefings, and event analysis available in both languages for cross-border investment teams.
Built For
- •Self-directed investors and independent PMs seeking institutional-grade tools without terminal cost.
- •Small to mid-cap fund managers ($10M–$500M AUM) who need a differentiated supply chain edge.
- •Quantitative researchers exploring graph-topology alpha factors and alternative data signals.
Contact
For institutional inquiries, research collaboration, or API access: